Difference between revisions of "Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Mission Rarities"

Revision as of 18:02, 16 June 2015

This page is part of the Lancer Knightz data collection project. Its goal is to quantify the rarities and treasure boxes from all of the fighting missions. For data about crowns and spark tokens, go to our Mission Crowns page. To understand our data collection procedure or learn how you can contribute, go to our Missions main page.

Rarities and Treasure Boxes

On Elite difficulty only, here is a summary of our data about Orbs of Alchemy, Radiant Fire Crystals, and treasure boxes. The columns are:

• Name, Rank, Lvls: Name, rank, and number of fighting levels.
• Data: The number of data for Orbs, Radiants, and treasure boxes. All Radiant data were collected after release 2014-02-26, when drop rates were increased. More data mean that the estimated average is more reliable. For the sake of tidiness, the table does not include confidence intervals.
• O1, O2, O3, O4, O5: Average Orbs earned per mission run, for each star level.
• FC5: Average Radiant Fire Crystals earned per mission run.
• Grn, Red: Average number of green and red treasure boxes found per run.

Orbs per Box

On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs. To see this estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. The horizontal axis is green and red boxes combined. The vertical axis is all five kinds of orbs combined. Each dot is a mission on Elite difficulty, run many times. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.

This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.

Radiants over Time

The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. The horizontal axis is decimal years. For example, the middle of 2014, which falls around July 1, is 2014.5 in decimal. The vertical axis is Radiants. Each point is a mission run on Elite difficulty. The runs from each mission are joined with lines. For example, the line that peaks at 33 is The King of Ashes. The dotted vertical line is the "Radiant buff" of release 2014-02-26.

The data show that the Radiant buff had a real and large effect. King of Ashes runs went from 3 or 0 Radiants to 18 or so. The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion.