Difference between revisions of "Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Mission Rarities"

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(more data; one new analysis; could also do sparks per box)
(thumbnailed, edited text in analyses)
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{{User:Vroom/end}}
 
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==Orbs per Box==
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==Orbs per Treasure Box==
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[[File:OrbsBoxes.png|right]]
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[[File:OrbsBoxes.png|thumb|right|Orbs per treasure box. Each dot is a mission on Elite, run many times. The horizontal axis is the total number of treasure boxes. The vertical axis is the total number of orbs.]]
  
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On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs. To see this estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. The horizontal axis is green and red boxes combined. The vertical axis is all five kinds of orbs combined. Each dot is a mission on Elite difficulty, run many times. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.
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On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.
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To arrive at a similar estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. For each mission, it shows orbs versus treasure boxes, totaled over many Elite runs. The best-fit line has slope around 0.005. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.
  
 
This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.
 
This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.
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==Radiants over Time==
 
==Radiants over Time==
  
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[[File:RadiantsTime.png|left]]
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[[File:RadiantsTime.png|thumb|left|Radiants over time. Each dot is a single Elite mission run. Each mission's dots are joined with line segments. The horizontal axis is decimal years. The vertical axis is Radiants. The dotted vertical line is the Radiant buff.]]
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The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. The horizontal axis is decimal years. For example, the middle of 2014, which falls around July 1, is 2014.5 in decimal. The vertical axis is Radiants. Each point is a mission run on Elite difficulty. The runs from each mission are joined with lines. For example, the line that peaks at 33 is The King of Ashes. The dotted vertical line is the "Radiant buff" of {{release|2014-02-26}}.
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The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. There is a lot of random noise in the signal. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical dotted line, which is the "Radiant buff" of {{release|2014-02-26}}.
  
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The data show that the Radiant buff had a real and large effect. King of Ashes runs went from 3 or 0 Radiants to 18 or so. The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion.
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The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion. And we really need more data to tease insights out of so much random noise.
  
 
[[Category:Guild Subpages]]
 
[[Category:Guild Subpages]]

Revision as of 19:02, 17 June 2015

This page is part of the Lancer Knightz data collection project. Its goal is to quantify the rarities and treasure boxes from all of the fighting missions. For data about crowns and spark tokens, go to our Mission Crowns page. To understand our data collection procedure or learn how you can contribute, go to our Missions main page.

Rarities and Treasure Boxes

On Elite difficulty only, here is a summary of our data about Orbs of Alchemy, Radiant Fire Crystals, and treasure boxes. The columns are:

  • Name, Rank, Lvls: Name, rank, and number of fighting levels.
  • Data: The number of data for Orbs, Radiants, and treasure boxes. All Radiant data were collected after release 2014-02-26, when drop rates were increased. More data mean that the estimated average is more reliable. For the sake of tidiness, the table does not include confidence intervals.
  • O1, O2, O3, O4, O5: Average Orbs earned per mission run, for each star level.
  • FC5: Average Radiant Fire Crystals earned per mission run.
  • Grn, Red: Average number of green and red treasure boxes found per run.
Name Rank Lvls Data O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 FC5 Grn Red
Legion of Almire Dngr 2 14, 10, 6 0.21 6.9 11.83 42.67
Heart of Ice Dngr 2 6, 5, 0 0.17 6.0
Ghosts in the Machine Dngr 2 13, 10, 6 0.23 5.1 22.5 42.5
Compound 42 Dngr 2 13, 10, 6 0.38 7.8 22.17 42.5
Nature of the Beast Prstg 2 14, 14, 7 0.21 19.14 1.0
Pinch of Salt Prstg 2 17, 14, 7 0.12 25.0 1.14
Assault on Machine Shop 13 Prstg 2 16, 14, 7 0.13 18.71 0.57
Hazardous Heist Prstg 2 17, 15, 7 0.06 16.57 0.57
White Collar Captives Prstg 2 15, 13, 7 16.71 2.29
Scared to Death Prstg 2 18, 16, 9 22.0 1.0
Operation Crimson Hammer Expnsn 5 3, 3, 2 4.0 29.5 16.5
Dreams and Nightmares 10-2 3 0, 0, 0
Shadowplay 10-2 3 1, 1, 1 3.0 22.0 13.0
It Came From Below 10-1 3 10, 10, 10 0.1 21.6 0.2
Crimson Chaos 10-1 3 10, 10, 9 0.1 1.8 24.78 0.44
Breaking in the Recruits 10-1 3 10, 10, 10 0.1 0.3 15.1 0.3
The King of Ashes 9-3 5 16, 11, 3 0.19 14.18 47.67 18.33
The Gauntlet 9-2 3 14, 11, 7 0.21 3.27 30.57 1.0
Alone in the Dark 9-2 3 16, 13, 8 0.25 0.46 23.63 0.5
Terminal Meltdown 9-2 3 14, 11, 6 0.14 0.82 23.5 0.33
The Silent Legion 9-1 3 13, 10, 6 0.08 1.5 29.17 0.83
An Occurrence at Owlite Keep 9-1 3 15, 12, 8 0.33 2.0 22.5 0.25
The Great Escape 8-2 3 15, 10, 8 0.07 24.5 0.75
The Rotting Metropolis 8-2 3 15, 10, 8 25.38 2.63
The Vile Engine 8-2 3 14, 10, 7 0.07 21.57 0.71
Weight of Darkness 8-1 3 15, 11, 8 0.07 0.07 31.13 1.0
The Return of Ur 8-1 3 15, 11, 7 19.29 2.43
Spark and Roar 7-3 3 15, 11, 7 0.13 26.0 0.57
Beyond the Axes of Evil 7-3 3 17, 12, 7 29.57 1.43
Vicious and Viscous 7-2 3 15, 10, 7 0.07 25.71 0.71
In Cold Blood 7-2 3 17, 11, 7 0.18 32.86 0.71
Built to Destroy! 6-2 3 31, 27, 7 0.03 0.23 22.71 8.29
Sewer Stash 6-2 3 14, 10, 7 0.43 30.0 1.29
Whipping and Mishandling 6-2 3 14, 10, 7 0.29 0.07 32.71 1.29
High Temperature Hostages 6-1 3 14, 10, 7 0.07 0.21 25.43 1.0
Plan of Attack 6-1 2 18, 15, 7 0.06 0.22 0.06 16.86 0.29
Axes of Evil 6-1 2 15, 12, 7 0.07 0.13 14.86 0.14
The Sovereign Slime 5-2 3 16, 12, 7 0.06 0.06 20.29 10.71
Rise or Fall 5-2 3 14, 10, 7 0.21 0.07 31.14 0.43
Time Enough at Last 5-2 3 14, 11, 7 0.14 0.07 24.43 1.57
Work for Idle Hands 5-1 2 13, 10, 6 0.08 0.08 17.83 1.17
Chilled to the Bone 5-1 2 13, 10, 6 0.08 0.08 17.67 0.67
Shocking Sentient Sentries 4-3 2 12, 10, 6 0.08 16.67 0.67
Rescues and Recycling 4-3 2 12, 10, 6 0.08 13.67 1.33
Frostifur Fandango 4-2 2 12, 10, 6 15.83 0.33
Oilers in the Boilers 4-2 2 12, 10, 6 0.08 0.25 20.33 0.5
Shadow of the Beast 3-2 3 15, 10, 6 0.33 0.13 11.83 8.17
Blades of the Fallen 3-2 1 13, 10, 7 0.0 0.0
Strength in Unity 3-2 2 13, 10, 7 0.15 13.57 0.71
Faith in Armor 3-2 1 13, 10, 7 0.08 8.14 0.71
Toy Soldiers 3-1 2 13, 10, 7 0.08 19.29 1.14
Alien Ooze 3-1 2 13, 10, 7 0.23 22.29 0.43
The Collector 2-3 2 13, 10, 6 12.67 0.17
The Phantom Mask 2-2 2 11, 10, 7 21.29 0.71
Angels From Antiquity 2-2 2 12, 10, 7 15.57 0.43
A Revelation In Flames 2-2 2 13, 10, 7 0.08 19.29 0.71

Orbs per Treasure Box

Orbs per treasure box. Each dot is a mission on Elite, run many times. The horizontal axis is the total number of treasure boxes. The vertical axis is the total number of orbs.

On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.

To arrive at a similar estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. For each mission, it shows orbs versus treasure boxes, totaled over many Elite runs. The best-fit line has slope around 0.005. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.

This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.

Radiants over Time

Radiants over time. Each dot is a single Elite mission run. Each mission's dots are joined with line segments. The horizontal axis is decimal years. The vertical axis is Radiants. The dotted vertical line is the Radiant buff.

The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. There is a lot of random noise in the signal. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical dotted line, which is the "Radiant buff" of release 2014-02-26.

The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion. And we really need more data to tease insights out of so much random noise.

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