Difference between revisions of "Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Mission Rarities"

Revision as of 18:30, 31 July 2015

This page is part of the Lancer Knightz data collection project. Its goal is to quantify the rarities and treasure boxes from all of the fighting missions. For data about crowns and spark tokens, go to our Mission Crowns page. To understand our data collection procedure or learn how you can contribute, go to our Missions main page.

Rarities and Treasure Boxes

On Elite difficulty only, here is a summary of our data about Orbs of Alchemy, Radiant Fire Crystals, and treasure boxes. The columns are:

• Name, Rank, Lvls: Name, rank, and number of fighting levels.
• Data: The number of data for Orbs, Radiants, and treasure boxes. All Radiant data were collected after release 2014-02-26, when drop rates were increased. More data mean that the estimated average is more reliable. For the sake of tidiness, the table does not include confidence intervals.
• O1, O2, O3, O4, O5: Average Orbs earned per mission run, for each star level.
• FC5: Average Radiant Fire Crystals earned per mission run.
• Grn, Red: Average number of green and red treasure boxes found per run.

Orbs per Treasure Box

Orbs per treasure box. Each dot is a mission on Elite, run many times. The horizontal axis is the total number of treasure boxes. The vertical axis is the total number of orbs.

On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.

To arrive at a similar estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. For each mission, it shows orbs versus treasure boxes, totaled over many Elite runs. The best-fit line has slope around 0.005. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.

This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.

Radiants over Time

Radiants over time. Each dot is a single Elite mission run. Each mission's dots are joined with line segments. The horizontal axis is decimal years. The vertical axis is Radiants. The dotted vertical line is the Radiant buff.

The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. There is a lot of random noise in the signal. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical dotted line, which is the "Radiant buff" of release 2014-02-26.

The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion. And we really need more data to tease insights out of so much random noise.