User talk:Jdavis/UVs
From SpiralKnights
Data sets
Here are some data sets on single-UV rates. Maybe I'll integrate this information into a proper wiki page somewhere.
- roflmao35 has 108 craftings resulting in single UVs. 71 +1s, 23 +2s, 8 +3s, 6 +4s. Also some non-UVs, although total sample size for that is not stated precisely.
- Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Unique Variants has 135 craftings resulting in single UVs. 90 +1s, 37 +2s, 6 +3s, 2 +4s. Also some double UVs and non-UVs.
- Lightningfireninja has 15 1-UV tickets. 15 +1s, 0 +2s, 0 +3s, 0 +4s. Also gives full detail of UV type and item type. But seems to have decided to post results after seeing the data, possibly introducing an observational bias.
- Spiral-Spy has interesting results with not enough detail. Perhaps by reverse-engineering, claims that UV type is uniformly random and UV strength is ~73% +1, ~20% +2, ~5% +3, ~2% +4. Not clear why percentages are approximate.
- Blue-Panther has 268 1-UV tickets. 186 +1s, 64 +2s, 11 +3s, 7 +4s. Also breaks down UVs by type on swords, finding not much deviation from 1/8 chances.
- Donkeyhaute has unpublished data on 207 1-UV tickets. 158 +1s, 38 +2s, 8 +3s, 3 +4s. Also promises full detail.
If we aggregate the results from roflmao35, Lancer Knightz, Blue-Panther, and Donkeyhaute, then we have 108 + 135 + 268 + 207 = 718 UVs, among them
- 71 + 90 + 186 + 158 = 505 +1s,
- 23 + 37 + 64 + 38 = 162 +2s,
- 8 + 6 + 11 + 8 = 33 +3s, and
- 6 + 2 + 7 + 3 = 18 +4s.
So the estimated rates are 505 / 718 = 70.3%, 162 / 718 = 22.6%, 33 / 718 = 4.6%, and 18 / 718 = 2.5%. If we use only Blue-Panther and Donkeyhaute (because the others are from crafting), then we get similar rates. Jdavis (talk) 14:50, 14 August 2019 (UTC)
