Difference between revisions of "User talk:Jdavis/UVs"
From SpiralKnights
(listing relevant data sets; brief analysis) 
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Revision as of 14:50, 14 August 2019
Data sets
Here are some data sets on singleUV rates. Maybe I'll integrate this information into a proper wiki page somewhere.
 roflmao35 has 108 craftings resulting in single UVs. 71 +1s, 23 +2s, 8 +3s, 6 +4s. Also some nonUVs, although total sample size for that is not stated precisely.
 Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Unique Variants has 135 craftings resulting in single UVs. 90 +1s, 37 +2s, 6 +3s, 2 +4s. Also some double UVs and nonUVs.
 Lightningfireninja has 15 1UV tickets. 15 +1s, 0 +2s, 0 +3s, 0 +4s. Also gives full detail of UV type and item type. But seems to have decided to post results after seeing the data, possibly introducing an observational bias.
 SpiralSpy has interesting results with not enough detail.
 BluePanther has 267 1UV tickets. 186 +1s, 64 +2s, 11 +3s, 7 +4s. Also breaks down UVs by type on swords, finding not much deviation from 1/8 chances.
 Donkeyhaute has unpublished data on 207 1UV tickets. 158 +1s, 38 +2s, 8 +3s, 3 +4s. Also promises full detail.
If we aggregate the results from roflmao35, Lancer Knightz, BluePanther, and Donkeyhaute, then we have 108 + 135 + 267 + 207 = 717 UVs, among them
 71 + 90 + 186 + 158 = 505 +1s,
 23 + 37 + 64 + 38 = 162 + 2s,
 8 + 6 + 11 + 8 = 33 +3s, and
 6 + 2 + 7 + 3 = 18 +4s.
So the estimated rates are 505 / 717 = 70.4%, 162 / 717 = 22.6%, 33 / 717 = 4.6%, and 18 / 717 = 2.5%. If we use only BluePanther and Donkeyhaute (because the others are from crafting), then we get similar rates. Jdavis (talk) 14:50, 14 August 2019 (UTC)