# Difference between revisions of "User talk:Jdavis/UVs"

### From SpiralKnights

(→Data sets: correction I hope: 268, not 267) |
(→Data sets: editing about SpiraSpy's observations) |
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*[http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/102817 Lightningfireninja] has 15 1-UV tickets. 15 +1s, 0 +2s, 0 +3s, 0 +4s. Also gives full detail of UV type and item type. But seems to have decided to post results after seeing the data, possibly introducing an observational bias. | *[http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/102817 Lightningfireninja] has 15 1-UV tickets. 15 +1s, 0 +2s, 0 +3s, 0 +4s. Also gives full detail of UV type and item type. But seems to have decided to post results after seeing the data, possibly introducing an observational bias. | ||

− | *[http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/104181 Spiral-Spy] has interesting results with not enough detail. | + | *[http://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/104181 Spiral-Spy] has interesting results with not enough detail. Perhaps by reverse-engineering, claims that UV type is uniformly random and UV strength is ~73% +1, ~20% +2, ~5% +3, ~2% +4. Not clear why percentages are approximate. |

*[https://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/122342 Blue-Panther] has 268 1-UV tickets. 186 +1s, 64 +2s, 11 +3s, 7 +4s. Also breaks down UVs by type on swords, finding not much deviation from 1/8 chances. | *[https://forums.spiralknights.com/en/node/122342 Blue-Panther] has 268 1-UV tickets. 186 +1s, 64 +2s, 11 +3s, 7 +4s. Also breaks down UVs by type on swords, finding not much deviation from 1/8 chances. | ||

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So the estimated rates are 505 / 718 = 70.3%, 162 / 718 = 22.6%, 33 / 718 = 4.6%, and 18 / 718 = 2.5%. If we use only Blue-Panther and Donkeyhaute (because the others are from crafting), then we get similar rates. [[User:Jdavis|Jdavis]] ([[User talk:Jdavis|talk]]) 14:50, 14 August 2019 (UTC) | So the estimated rates are 505 / 718 = 70.3%, 162 / 718 = 22.6%, 33 / 718 = 4.6%, and 18 / 718 = 2.5%. If we use only Blue-Panther and Donkeyhaute (because the others are from crafting), then we get similar rates. [[User:Jdavis|Jdavis]] ([[User talk:Jdavis|talk]]) 14:50, 14 August 2019 (UTC) | ||

:I edited the post above. [[User:Jdavis|Jdavis]] ([[User talk:Jdavis|talk]]) 20:08, 14 August 2019 (UTC) | :I edited the post above. [[User:Jdavis|Jdavis]] ([[User talk:Jdavis|talk]]) 20:08, 14 August 2019 (UTC) | ||

+ | :I edited the post above again. [[User:Jdavis|Jdavis]] ([[User talk:Jdavis|talk]]) 12:05, 15 August 2019 (UTC) |

## Revision as of 12:05, 15 August 2019

## Data sets

Here are some data sets on single-UV rates. Maybe I'll integrate this information into a proper wiki page somewhere.

- roflmao35 has 108 craftings resulting in single UVs. 71 +1s, 23 +2s, 8 +3s, 6 +4s. Also some non-UVs, although total sample size for that is not stated precisely.

- Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Unique Variants has 135 craftings resulting in single UVs. 90 +1s, 37 +2s, 6 +3s, 2 +4s. Also some double UVs and non-UVs.

- Lightningfireninja has 15 1-UV tickets. 15 +1s, 0 +2s, 0 +3s, 0 +4s. Also gives full detail of UV type and item type. But seems to have decided to post results after seeing the data, possibly introducing an observational bias.

- Spiral-Spy has interesting results with not enough detail. Perhaps by reverse-engineering, claims that UV type is uniformly random and UV strength is ~73% +1, ~20% +2, ~5% +3, ~2% +4. Not clear why percentages are approximate.

- Blue-Panther has 268 1-UV tickets. 186 +1s, 64 +2s, 11 +3s, 7 +4s. Also breaks down UVs by type on swords, finding not much deviation from 1/8 chances.

- Donkeyhaute has unpublished data on 207 1-UV tickets. 158 +1s, 38 +2s, 8 +3s, 3 +4s. Also promises full detail.

If we aggregate the results from roflmao35, Lancer Knightz, Blue-Panther, and Donkeyhaute, then we have 108 + 135 + 268 + 207 = 718 UVs, among them

- 71 + 90 + 186 + 158 = 505 +1s,
- 23 + 37 + 64 + 38 = 162 +2s,
- 8 + 6 + 11 + 8 = 33 +3s, and
- 6 + 2 + 7 + 3 = 18 +4s.

So the estimated rates are 505 / 718 = 70.3%, 162 / 718 = 22.6%, 33 / 718 = 4.6%, and 18 / 718 = 2.5%. If we use only Blue-Panther and Donkeyhaute (because the others are from crafting), then we get similar rates. Jdavis (talk) 14:50, 14 August 2019 (UTC)