Difference between revisions of "Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Mission Rarities"

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(Rarities and Treasure Boxes: more data, especially Dreams and Nightmares)
(more data; figures should have better labels; Radiants figure should show much better information when the update goes through)
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{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
  
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Legion of Almire | Dngr | 2 | 18, 14, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Legion of Almire | Dngr | 2 | 19, 15, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.17 | 7.07 | 12.3 | 42.6 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.16 | 7.4 | 12.27 | 42.55 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Heart of Ice | Dngr | 2 | 7, 6, 1 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Heart of Ice | Dngr | 2 | 7, 6, 1 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.14 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 43.0 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.14 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 43.0 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Ghosts in the Machine | Dngr | 2 | 17, 14, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Ghosts in the Machine | Dngr | 2 | 18, 15, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.35 | 5.14 | 22.0 | 42.8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.33 | 5.4 | 21.82 | 42.73 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Compound 42 | Dngr | 2 | 17, 14, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Compound 42 | Dngr | 2 | 18, 15, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.47 | 7.07 | 22.8 | 42.5 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.44 | 7.0 | 22.73 | 42.64 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Nature of the Beast | Prstg | 2 | 18, 18, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Nature of the Beast | Prstg | 2 | 19, 19, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.06 | 0.17 | 18.91 | 0.91 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.05 | 0.16 | 18.75 | 1.08 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Pinch of Salt | Prstg | 2 | 21, 18, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Pinch of Salt | Prstg | 2 | 22, 19, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.1 | | 21.18 | 1.0 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.09 | | 21.0 | 1.08 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Assault on Machine Shop 13 | Prstg | 2 | 20, 18, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Assault on Machine Shop 13 | Prstg | 2 | 21, 19, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.1 | | 19.0 | 0.82 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.1 | | 18.42 | 0.75 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Hazardous Heist | Prstg | 2 | 21, 19, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Hazardous Heist | Prstg | 2 | 22, 20, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.05 | | 16.36 | 0.91 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.05 | | 15.92 | 0.83 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| White Collar Captives | Prstg | 2 | 19, 17, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| White Collar Captives | Prstg | 2 | 20, 18, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | 0.18 | 16.82 | 1.64 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | 0.17 | 17.17 | 1.5 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Scared to Death | Prstg | 2 | 20, 18, 11 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Scared to Death | Prstg | 2 | 21, 19, 12 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 21.91 | 0.82 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 22.25 | 0.75 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Operation Crimson Hammer | Expn | 5 | 5, 5, 4 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Operation Crimson Hammer | Expn | 5 | 5, 5, 4 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.2 | 2.4 | 29.25 | 16.75 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.2 | 2.4 | 29.25 | 16.75 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Dreams and Nightmares | 10-2 | 3 | 10, 10, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Dreams and Nightmares | 10-2 | 3 | 11, 11, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.1 | 21.9 | 38.5 | 21.7 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.09 | 22.09 | 38.91 | 21.73 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Shadowplay | 10-2 | 3 | 10, 10, 10 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Shadowplay | 10-2 | 3 | 10, 10, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.17 | 14.77 | 47.6 | 18.4 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.17 | 14.77 | 47.6 | 18.4 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Gauntlet | 9-2 | 3 | 17, 14, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Gauntlet | 9-2 | 3 | 18, 15, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.18 | 3.21 | 30.8 | 0.8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.17 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 0.82 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Alone in the Dark | 9-2 | 3 | 18, 15, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Alone in the Dark | 9-2 | 3 | 19, 16, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.22 | 0.6 | 22.8 | 0.5 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.21 | 0.56 | 23.0 | 0.45 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Terminal Meltdown | 9-2 | 3 | 18, 15, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Terminal Meltdown | 9-2 | 3 | 19, 16, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.11 | 1.6 | 23.5 | 0.5 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.11 | 1.69 | 23.0 | 0.55 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Silent Legion | 9-1 | 3 | 17, 14, 10 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Silent Legion | 9-1 | 3 | 17, 14, 10 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.18 | 1.71 | 28.9 | 1.1 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.18 | 1.71 | 28.9 | 1.1 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| An Occurrence at Owlite Keep | 9-1 | 3 | 17, 14, 10 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| An Occurrence at Owlite Keep | 9-1 | 3 | 18, 15, 11 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.29 | 1.71 | 22.3 | 0.6 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.28 | 1.6 | 22.45 | 0.64 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Great Escape | 8-2 | 3 | 15, 10, 8 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| The Great Escape | 8-2 | 3 | 15, 10, 8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 19.63 | 2.38 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 19.63 | 2.38 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Spark and Roar | 7-3 | 3 | 16, 12, 8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Spark and Roar | 7-3 | 3 | 17, 13, 9 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.13 | | 25.63 | 0.5 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.12 | | 25.78 | 0.56 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Beyond the Axes of Evil | 7-3 | 3 | 18, 13, 8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Beyond the Axes of Evil | 7-3 | 3 | 19, 14, 9 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 29.63 | 1.38 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | | | 29.44 | 1.56 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| Vicious and Viscous | 7-2 | 3 | 16, 11, 8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| Vicious and Viscous | 7-2 | 3 | 17, 12, 9 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.06 | | 25.75 | 0.88 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.06 | | 25.56 | 0.78 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
{{User:Vroom/cell4| In Cold Blood | 7-2 | 3 | 18, 12, 8 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell4| In Cold Blood | 7-2 | 3 | 19, 13, 9 }}
{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.17 | | 32.63 | 0.75 }}
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{{User:Vroom/cell8| | | | | 0.16 | | 31.78 | 0.67 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/row}}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| '''Built to Destroy!''' | 6-2 | 3 | 34, 30, 10 }}
 
{{User:Vroom/cell4| '''Built to Destroy!''' | 6-2 | 3 | 34, 30, 10 }}
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==Orbs per Treasure Box==
 
==Orbs per Treasure Box==
[[File:OrbsBoxes.png|thumb|right|Orbs per treasure box. Each dot is a mission on Elite, run many times. The horizontal axis is the total number of treasure boxes. The vertical axis is the total number of orbs.]]
+
[[File:OrbsBoxes.png|right]]
  
 
On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.
 
On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.
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==Radiants over Time==
 
==Radiants over Time==
  
[[File:RadiantsTime.png|thumb|left|Radiants over time. Each dot is a single Elite mission run. Each mission's dots are joined with line segments. The horizontal axis is decimal years. The vertical axis is Radiants. The dotted vertical line is the Radiant buff.]]
+
[[File:RadiantsTime.png|left]]
  
The plot at left shows Radiant Fire Crystals earned on Elite mission runs over about 1.5 years. There is a lot of random noise in the signal. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical dotted line, which is the "Radiant buff" of {{release|2014-02-26}}.
+
Do drop rates of Radiant Fire Crystals change over time? Our data suggest: No, except at the "Radiant buff" of {{release|2014-02-26}}.
  
The data weakly suggest a second Radiant drought in late 2014. But we have not run the statistical tests needed to substantiate that suspicion. And we really need more data to tease insights out of so much random noise.
+
The plot at left shows Radiants earned in many mission runs over the years. All runs are on Elite difficulty, and missions with fewer than three runs yielding Radiants are excluded. The horizontal axis is decimal years; for example, 2014.5 is the middle of 2014. The vertical axis is Radiants earned, divided by the average Radiants earned for that mission. Each dot is a single run of a mission.
 +
 
 +
If Radiant drops were deterministic and unchanging, then all of the dots would plot along the line ''y'' = 1. These dots don't, just because there is so much random variation from run to run. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical blue line, which is the Radiant buff. After that, drop rates seem not to change in any detectable way.
  
 
[[Category:Guild Subpages]]
 
[[Category:Guild Subpages]]

Revision as of 20:20, 30 November 2015

This page is part of the Lancer Knightz data collection project. Its goal is to quantify the rarities and treasure boxes from all of the fighting missions. For data about crowns and spark tokens, go to our Mission Crowns page. To understand our data collection procedure or learn how you can contribute, go to our Missions main page.

Rarities and Treasure Boxes

On Elite difficulty only, here is a summary of our data about Orbs of Alchemy, Radiant Fire Crystals, and treasure boxes. The columns are:

  • Name, Rank, Lv: Name, rank, and number of fighting levels.
  • Data: The number of data for Orbs, Radiants, and treasure boxes. All Radiant data were collected after release 2014-02-26, when drop rates were increased. More data mean that the estimated average is more reliable. For the sake of tidiness, the table does not include confidence intervals.
  • O1, O2, O3, O4, O5: Average Orbs earned per mission run, for each star level.
  • FC5: Average Radiant Fire Crystals earned per mission run.
  • Grn, Red: Average number of green and red treasure boxes found per run.
Name Rank Lv Data O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 FC5 Grn Red
Legion of Almire Dngr 2 19, 15, 11 0.16 7.4 12.27 42.55
Heart of Ice Dngr 2 7, 6, 1 0.14 6.0 11.0 43.0
Ghosts in the Machine Dngr 2 18, 15, 11 0.33 5.4 21.82 42.73
Compound 42 Dngr 2 18, 15, 11 0.44 7.0 22.73 42.64
Nature of the Beast Prstg 2 19, 19, 12 0.05 0.16 18.75 1.08
Pinch of Salt Prstg 2 22, 19, 12 0.09 21.0 1.08
Assault on Machine Shop 13 Prstg 2 21, 19, 12 0.1 18.42 0.75
Hazardous Heist Prstg 2 22, 20, 12 0.05 15.92 0.83
White Collar Captives Prstg 2 20, 18, 12 0.17 17.17 1.5
Scared to Death Prstg 2 21, 19, 12 22.25 0.75
Operation Crimson Hammer Expn 5 5, 5, 4 0.2 2.4 29.25 16.75
Dreams and Nightmares 10-2 3 11, 11, 11 0.09 22.09 38.91 21.73
Shadowplay 10-2 3 10, 10, 10 0.1 4.2 22.5 12.5
It Came From Below 10-1 3 11, 11, 11 0.09 21.18 0.27
Crimson Chaos 10-1 3 12, 12, 11 0.08 2.25 24.27 0.45
Breaking in the Recruits 10-1 3 11, 11, 11 0.09 0.82 15.18 0.27
The King of Ashes 9-3 5 18, 13, 5 0.17 14.77 47.6 18.4
The Gauntlet 9-2 3 18, 15, 11 0.17 3.0 31.0 0.82
Alone in the Dark 9-2 3 19, 16, 11 0.21 0.56 23.0 0.45
Terminal Meltdown 9-2 3 19, 16, 11 0.11 1.69 23.0 0.55
The Silent Legion 9-1 3 17, 14, 10 0.18 1.71 28.9 1.1
An Occurrence at Owlite Keep 9-1 3 18, 15, 11 0.28 1.6 22.45 0.64
The Great Escape 8-2 3 15, 10, 8 0.07 24.5 0.75
The Rotting Metropolis 8-2 3 15, 10, 8 25.38 2.63
The Vile Engine 8-2 3 15, 11, 8 0.07 21.13 0.63
Weight of Darkness 8-1 3 15, 11, 8 0.07 0.07 31.13 1.0
The Return of Ur 8-1 3 16, 12, 8 19.63 2.38
Spark and Roar 7-3 3 17, 13, 9 0.12 25.78 0.56
Beyond the Axes of Evil 7-3 3 19, 14, 9 29.44 1.56
Vicious and Viscous 7-2 3 17, 12, 9 0.06 25.56 0.78
In Cold Blood 7-2 3 19, 13, 9 0.16 31.78 0.67
Built to Destroy! 6-2 3 34, 30, 10 0.03 0.26 0.03 22.7 8.5
Sewer Stash 6-2 3 15, 11, 8 0.47 30.38 1.13
Whipping and Mishandling 6-2 3 15, 11, 8 0.27 0.07 31.88 1.38
High Temperature Hostages 6-1 3 15, 11, 8 0.07 0.2 26.0 1.0
Plan of Attack 6-1 2 19, 16, 8 0.05 0.21 0.05 17.0 0.38
Axes of Evil 6-1 2 16, 13, 8 0.06 0.13 14.75 0.25
The Sovereign Slime 5-2 3 19, 15, 10 0.05 0.21 0.05 20.0 11.0
Rise or Fall 5-2 3 15, 11, 7 0.2 0.07 31.14 0.43
Time Enough at Last 5-2 3 14, 11, 7 0.14 0.07 24.43 1.57
Work for Idle Hands 5-1 2 14, 11, 7 0.07 0.07 18.14 1.43
Chilled to the Bone 5-1 2 14, 11, 7 0.07 0.07 17.57 0.57
Shocking Sentient Sentries 4-3 2 13, 11, 7 0.08 17.43 0.71
Rescues and Recycling 4-3 2 13, 11, 7 0.08 14.14 1.14
Frostifur Fandango 4-2 2 13, 11, 7 15.14 0.29
Oilers in the Boilers 4-2 2 13, 11, 7 0.08 0.31 21.0 0.71
Shadow of the Beast 3-2 3 19, 14, 10 0.26 0.11 11.7 8.3
Blades of the Fallen 3-2 1 13, 10, 7 0.0 0.0
Strength in Unity 3-2 2 13, 10, 7 0.15 13.57 0.71
Faith in Armor 3-2 1 13, 10, 7 0.08 8.14 0.71
Toy Soldiers 3-1 2 13, 10, 7 0.08 19.29 1.14
Alien Ooze 3-1 2 13, 10, 7 0.23 22.29 0.43
The Collector 2-3 2 14, 11, 7 12.71 0.14
The Phantom Mask 2-2 2 11, 10, 7 21.29 0.71
Angels From Antiquity 2-2 2 12, 10, 7 15.57 0.43
A Revelation In Flames 2-2 2 13, 10, 7 0.08 19.29 0.71

Orbs per Treasure Box

OrbsBoxes.png

On Elite difficulty, the average number of orbs per treasure box is around 0.005. In other words, about 0.5% of boxes contain orbs.

To arrive at a similar estimate in a different way, examine the plot at right. For each mission, it shows orbs versus treasure boxes, totaled over many Elite runs. The best-fit line has slope around 0.005. As you can see, there is a lot of variation around the best-fit line. We need many more observations to pin down the orb drop rate more precisely.

This analysis does not account for the distinction between green and red boxes. There may be more orbs per red box than per green box, because green boxes contain a wider mix of pickups and other non-orb items.

Radiants over Time

RadiantsTime.png

Do drop rates of Radiant Fire Crystals change over time? Our data suggest: No, except at the "Radiant buff" of release 2014-02-26.

The plot at left shows Radiants earned in many mission runs over the years. All runs are on Elite difficulty, and missions with fewer than three runs yielding Radiants are excluded. The horizontal axis is decimal years; for example, 2014.5 is the middle of 2014. The vertical axis is Radiants earned, divided by the average Radiants earned for that mission. Each dot is a single run of a mission.

If Radiant drops were deterministic and unchanging, then all of the dots would plot along the line y = 1. These dots don't, just because there is so much random variation from run to run. However, it is clear that drop rates increase dramatically across the vertical blue line, which is the Radiant buff. After that, drop rates seem not to change in any detectable way.

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