Talk:Lancer Knightz (Guild)/Punch 1-UV Tickets

Time

Nice work. It's always lovely to see your new data. I really appreciate how careful you are. Uh, and it's nice to see you too. :)

You mentioned that you record the date of the Punching. I wonder whether you have enough data to test whether rates have changed over time. Like maybe compare (A) the rates between 2011-08-02 and 2013-07-30 to (B) the rates since 2013-07-30.

I ask, because at User talk:Jdavis/UVs#Data sets I aggregate various data sets, including part of yours, to estimate the level frequencies. The methodology is different, such as lumping crafting and Punching together. But 70.3% is pretty different from your new estimate of 76.5%, and it's even outside your confidence interval. (Then again, the confidences intervals might overlap, if we computed both of them.)

Just an idea. Jdavis (talk) 17:05, 9 April 2025 (UTC)

Hello. Nice to see you too.

It's a good idea, but we can't do it as you want it, because our earliest data are from 2014. (We have some records from before 2014, but not careful enough or numerous enough to matter.) For some reason we have no data from 2017, so that's a natural break point for us. The 2014-2016 data give rates 74.8%, 19.0%, 4.1%, 2.0% (based on 147 data). The 2018-current data give rates 77.6%, 16.6%, 2.9%, 2.9% (based on 241 data). I haven't computed confidence regions.

Not exactly what you wanted, but that's the kind of thing our data set can say. Vroom (talk) 17:15, 12 April 2025 (UTC)

Thanks anyway for breaking out those two time periods. Happy travels, Jdavis (talk) 20:20, 15 April 2025 (UTC)